Committee Hotspots 1/18/11

AMERICAS

Mexico (Country threat level - 4): On 17 January 2011 rival gang members clashed in front of a convenience store in Monterrey. Six people were killed, including two bystanders. Authorities in Monterrey stated that the violence was the result of a turf war between drug gangs. Also on 17 January, 10 additional people died during other gang attacks on rivals and law enforcement personnel throughout the city. Gang members engaged police officers in shootouts in more than five locations, which resulted in gunshot wounds to two bystanders. According to security officials, cartel-related violence accounts for 63 killings in Monterrey so far in 2011. All but one of the victims were either cartel-related individuals or law enforcement officials.

ASIA

Thailand (Country threat level - 4): Police officials in Bangkok announced on 18 January 2011 that they have reached an agreement with the Thai Patriots Network (TPN) to open up traffic through the area around the Government House complex. TPN activists began gathering around the Government House building in the Dusit district of the city on 13 January to protest against the government’s handling of the ongoing border dispute with neighboring Cambodia. Since then the demonstration has continued each day and has remained peaceful, but during business days on 14 and 16 January a crowd of TPN protesters blocked portions of Phitsanulok Road adjacent to the main gate at the Government House. Police negotiators have reportedly persuaded the protesters to open up traffic on Phitsanulok Road each day from 0600-1000 and 1500-1800 local time.

Meanwhile, TPN leader Chaiwat Sinsuwong was arrested on 18 January, shortly after he led a march to the Grand Palace complex to file a petition with the government to address the Thai royal family and relay the TPN grievances against the government. Prosecutors have charged Chaiwat with offenses related to his role in the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) protest siege of Bangkok’s airports in late 2008.

Analyst Comment: TPN representatives have not yet issued a response to the arrest and it is not yet known if the group’s protest campaign will be altered in the short term. Chaiwat split off from the PAD group after the 2008 protests and was one of the founding leaders of the TPN network. Though some police officials have expressed concern that the peaceful and relatively small TPN protests could be intensified in response to the arrest, Chaiwat himself has stressed restraint to the TPN membership. There are no indications that the TPN group is planning to launch a protest campaign similar to the PAD tactics used in 2008. Travelers to Bangkok should avoid the protest area outside the Government House, as the demonstration will likely continue to cause traffic disruptions.

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

Lebanon (Country threat level - 4): On 18 January 2011 several separate demonstrations were held in Beirut in support of Hizballah. The demonstrations each averaged only several dozen participants, and there were no reports of violence. Some schools were closed, however, and roads leading to the Grand Serail, the seat of government in downtown Beirut, were shut down as a result of the gatherings.

Analyst Comment: The demonstrations follow the 17 January filing of indictments with a pre-trial judge in the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL), the U.N.-backed tribunal established to investigate and try suspects in connection with the February 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. The STL is a highly controversial entity in Lebanon, and anticipation that members of Hizballah will be among those indicted has contributed to a renewed political crisis that recently resulted in the collapse of the unity government. The indictments must still be reviewed by the pre-trial judge before any arrest warrants are publicly issued, which may take as long as 10 weeks according to some reports. In the meantime, the situation in Lebanon will continue to remain tense, fostering an environment in which further political demonstrations and even incidents of violence may occur. Thus far, however, the situation on the ground remains calm.

Libya (Country threat level - 3): On 17 January 2011 security forces gained control of several housing projects in the country that residents had taken over in protest over corruption and the lack of government housing. Misinterpreted statements by Libyan leader Muammar Khadafy regarding the rightful ownership of public housing may have prompted the unrest. Reports indicate that in several instances on 14-16 January demonstrators forcefully took over incomplete housing projects and ransacked the offices of foreign contractors engaged in the construction of the buildings in various cities and towns. In Tripoli, the capital, residents took over al-Waha project on Airport Road as well as several other developments in the nearby area. Although the take-overs appear to largely be at an end, local sources indicate that approximately 100 people remain at al-Waha project and that developers will not be able to return to the site for at least two weeks. Similar incidents of unrest also occurred in other locations, including the cities of Bidaa, Sabhaa and Bani Walid. In Darana and Benghazi, the capital of the Cyrenaica province, protesters reportedly overran several developments in looting incidents and fires broke out in several cases. Reports indicate that at least two people were killed and an unspecified number of people were arrested over the last several days.

Analyst Comment: The recent incidents in Libya come amid increasing concerns regarding potential regional ramifications of the recent uprising in neighboring Tunisia. Although there are some indications regarding a possible connection between the unrest in Tunisia and the developments in Libya, the breadth of such a connection is unclear. Gauging the connection is made more complicated by the fact that the autocratic nature of the Libyan government -- including the strict controls on national media -- makes it difficult to ascertain specifics regarding such developing situations. Reports of demonstrations and/or incidents of unrest, especially against the regime, are often quickly repressed. Although the recent reports appear to concur to some extent regarding the nature and motivation of the unrest, information regarding specifics such as scope and scale of the social actions are not always reliable.

Yemen (Country threat level - 4): On 18 January 2011 thousands of students protested at the University of Sanaa for a third consecutive day in support of the recent protest movement in Tunisia that toppled the government. Riot police have been deployed to control the crowds, which began gathering on 16 January, urging the Yemeni government to take heed of the situation in Tunisia and to make democratic reforms or face a similar fate. On 18 January the protests were confined to the university campus, as police officers fired into the air to prevent students from marching to Tahrir Square in central Sanaa. The riot police appear to have disbanded the protesters, but further rallies are probable in the coming days. Travelers in Yemen should avoid all large gatherings, as the protests have the potential to turn violent with little to no warning.

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Nigeria (Country threat level - 5): On 18 January 2011 the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) militant group warned that it is planning to carry out fresh attacks in the Niger Delta region. The group stated that it will specifically target fuel depots and vehicles transporting petroleum products, and advised residents living near depots storing aviation fuel, diesel, kerosene, petrol, propane gas and engine oil to evacuate immediately. Many MEND members accepted a government amnesty program in late 2009, but the group resumed activity in 2010 due to the government’s inability to follow through with many of the amnesty’s provisions.

Nigeria (Country threat level - 5): Nigerian security forces in Jos, Plateau state, received shoot-to-kill orders on 18 January 2011 following clashes between Muslim and Christian youths during a voter registration event the previous day. The orders allow soldiers to kill anyone attempting to hurt another person or destroy a home or church. Authorities issued the orders after a mob of Christian youths killed a Muslim election official and set his body on fire on 17 January. The incident triggered additional clashes between the city’s Muslim and Christian populations. Security forces subsequently opened fire on the crowds when they were unable to pacify the situation, killing at least two other people. At least 100 people have been killed in clashes between Muslims and Christians in and around Jos since December 2010, and the 17 January incident serves to further heighten tensions as the country prepares for general elections in April 2011.

South Africa (Country threat level - 4): On 18 January 2011 the South African government declared a state of disaster in 28 municipalities in seven provinces due to recent flooding. The affected provinces include Gauteng, Free State, KwaZulu-Natal, Mpumalanga, North West, Northern Cape and Limpopo; Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal have been the worst affected provinces. Among the municipalities included in the disaster declaration are Tshwane (Pretoria), Johannesburg and eThekwini, which includes Durban. The South African Weather Service has reported that most of the country’s rivers, dams and reservoirs have already reached capacity, and that additional rains are likely in the coming days. At least 40 people have been killed and 6,000 others have been displaced in the flooding, which has been ongoing since mid-December 2010.